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WHY JSU? NUMBERS DON’T LIE

Bryan Fulford • December 20, 2021

WHY JSU? NUMBERS DON’T LIE

December 20, 2021
Bryan Fulford | Black College Sports Network

One of the beautiful quirks about college football is the process of crowning the national champion. Despite the blood, sweat and tears shed on the field of play to determine a winner and loser, the hard work by the young men on the field has produced more controversies and debates than clear conclusions after jerseys have been put away and lockers cleaned for the spring. 

For decades, the crowning of a national champion has been left to the hands of third-parties, media outlets that cover the teams and the sport. Whether it be for Historically White Colleges and Universities (HWCUs) or Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs), the media have always had a say in determining a champion, and schools have been quick to market it to their fanbase and future prospects as one more reason to be part of their school instead of someone else's, regardless of the final outcome.

Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (MEAC) champion South Carolina State, who came into their final game with a record of 6-5, defeated Southwestern Athletic Conference (SWAC) champion Jackson State, who came into the same game with a record of 11-1, in the 2021 Cricket Celebration Bowl by a score of 31-10. The Tigers of Jackson State entered the game as the undisputed number 1 team in black college football. SC State’s victory was the highlight of their season as the Bulldogs won their sixth game in their final seven.

Many people, primarily ABC/ESPN, who organize the game and events surrounding the game in conjunction with the MEAC and SWAC, have called the Celebration Bowl the de facto Black College National Championship Game. Unfortunately, that claim discounts other FCS-level HBCUs that do not have an opportunity to play in this game because they are not in the MEAC or SWAC. It also doesn’t give much thought to a scenario where one team playing in the game may not have a final record on par with their opponent, or another opponent that did not play in the bowl game.  A final consideration is how well an HBCU competes in the FCS playoffs.

While ABC/ESPN uses their game, and other black college media outlets use polls, to determine the black college national champion, the Black College Sports Network (BCSN) uses a unique data-driven rating system to determine the black college national champion of the Division-I (FCS) and Under D-1 (non-FCS schools in Division-II and NAIA) classifications. 


The BCSN rankings begin the first week of October and at the end of the season ranks a teams entire body of work, not just their performance in one game, or their last game of the college season. It takes into consideration wins and losses, the opponents, where those wins and losses occurred, and overall strength of schedule.

Our 2021 BCSN Black College National Champion in the Division-I level is the Jackson State Tigers, coached by Deion Sanders.  The Tigers finished the season with 11 wins and two losses, unbeaten in conference play (8-0) and won their first SWAC championship since 2007 over Prairie View A&M in the SWAC Championship Game. They were the only FCS HBCU team to have double-digit victories, and have the fewest losses (2) among all black college football teams at the FCS level.  The Tigers played one FBS opponent (Louisiana-Monroe, lost 12-7) and one Division II opponent (Delta State, won 24-17). This is the school’s 4th black college national championships (1962, 1985, 1996).

IF NOT JSU, THEN WHO?


JSU’s loss to SC State in the Celebration Bowl created the type of controversy and debate that fanbases of three programs will argue over for years to come.

First to argue over our selection is the Bulldogs of SC State, who finished the season 7-5, are coached by the schools all-time winningest coach and MEAC Hall of Famer, Buddy Pough. SC State is one of the original members of the MEAC and have won outright or shared 18 conference titles, eight under Coach Pough, along with four black college national championships, last in 2009. 

Despite going unbeaten in conference play this season (5-0), they were 1-5 in non-conference games. SCSU was the only team under consideration for a national championship not to play a NCAA Division II opponent.  The Bulldogs also played two FCS opponents.  SC State was blown out by FCS powerhouse Clemson 49-3, but only lost to FCS New Mexico State 43-35.  Another non-conference game of significance was a 10 point loss to North Carolina A&T. South Carolina State chose to play four of their six non-conference games versus HBCU opponents. They played three common opponents with Jackson State:  Florida A&M (FAMU), Alabama A&M (AAMU), and Bethune-Cookman (BCU).  The Bulldogs lost by 23 points at FAMU, lost by 1-point at AAMU, and won by 7-points at home against BCU. 

The second fanbase to have feelings about our selection is the team that benefited from our rankings system in 2019, Florida A&M. Coached by Willie Simmons, the Rattlers lost to Jackson State by 1 point in the Orange Blossom Classic, which was held in Miami Gardens, FL the first weekend of the college football season.  

Prior to that classic matchup, FAMU had not played a football game since their 2019 season ended with a loss in their final game of the season to rival BCU. But, it didn’t deter the rankings from narrowly crowning them champions as they had the best winning percentage among all teams in FCS (9-2), best record in the MEAC (7-1), and defeated North Carolina A&T, who would go on to win the Celebration Bowl that year. Ironically, A&T split the conference title in 2019 with SC State, who also lost to FAMU.


Florida A&M’s schedule included one FCS opponent (South Florida, 38-17 loss) and one Division II opponent (Fort Valley, 34-7 win).  After the early season 1-point loss to Jackson State, the Rattlers went on to win the final eight games of their season, earn a top-25 ranking and an at-large bid to the FCS playoffs. Those wins included a 23-point victory over SC State at home, a 7-point victory at Alabama A&M, and a 25-point victory over BCU at a neutral site.  It was the first appearance by a HBCU team since 2016, and a member of the SWAC in over a decade.

FAMU was recognized on NCAA.com as the top team in the final HBCU football power rankings ahead of South Carolina State and Jackson State, which quickly led the program and Coach Simmons to claim their second national championship in as many seasons.


By our count, that’s three schools declared national champions from three different outlets. There surely will be more.


THE NON-ANALYTICAL APPROACH


Rarely do you get a chance to evaluate not just wins and losses, but head-to-head and common opponents in a debate such as this. So let’s present one final look at Jackson State and why they can feel good about claiming this national championship despite losing their final game of the year.


International sports organizations have used Pool Play groupings to determine which teams advance to knockout stages of events. Organizations like FIBA and FIFA, as well as the Olympic Committee, take a group of four or five teams and let them play games on the field or court, then determine their top teams for the next round.


Applying that same methodology to five HBCU teams that all played each other this season may help some understand, or buy-in, to the selection.  The schools are Jackson State, FAMU, SC State, Alabama A&M and Bethune-Cookman.

After all the games have been played this year, the final standings are:


Jackson State 3-1

FAMU 3-1

Alabama A&M 2-2

SC State 2-2

BCU 0-4


With Jackson State and FAMU tied at 3-1, most tiebreakers center around head-to-head or margin of victory against opponents, or points allowed. Well, we know how head-to-head turned out. Let’s look at the margin of victory and points allowed.


In order of game played:

Jackson State (Win by 1, Win by 46, Win by 30, Loss by 21) = +56 margin of victory

Florida A&M (Loss by 1, Win by 23, Win by 4, Win by 25) = +51 margin of victory


Jackson State (allowed 6, 15, 12, 31) = 64 points allowed

Florida A&M (allowed 7, 7, 31, 21) = 66 points allowed

THE ANALYTICAL APPROACH

The Black College Sports Network ranking is based upon a computer formula that factors a team’s record, a team’s conference record, and a team’s strength of schedule. Bonus points are awarded for road victories or neutral site victories. All of a team’s games are factored equally, i.e. Week 1 carries the same weight as the postseason.  


After crunching the numbers, here are the final results when all data is entered into the spreadsheet:

Team                       W L Points

Jackson St              11 2 1303

Florida A&M             9  3 1091

Alabama A&M          7  3 761

South Carolina St     7  5 755

Prairie View A&M     7  4 729

 It looks like the choice is clear. Jackson State not only had the best record during the season, but among the four common opponents with SC State and Florida A&M, they tied with FAMU for the best record and “outscored” them in two very common tiebreakers.


What really matters is that for the next 8 months fans have something to debate and talk about as programs, coaches and players go through the recruiting process, spring practices and fall camps.


Maybe the 2022 Celebration Bowl will give us a clear matchup between the top two or three teams in December of 2022. Until that time, enjoy the debate and congratulate the Jackson State Tigers on being the best or the best in 2021.

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